How Much Traffic Does Position 1 on Google Get? (2026)

The number one organic result on Google gets somewhere between about 4% and 28% of clicks, depending on the study and, above all, on whether an AI Overview sits above it. First Page Sage's 2026 report puts position 1 at 22.6% CTR on searches with no AI answer and just 3.6% on searches with one, while Backlinko's widely cited analysis puts the long-run average at 27.6%.

This guide is for e-commerce and Shopify teams deciding which rankings are worth the effort. You will get the current CTR benchmarks side by side, what AI Overviews have done to them, a worked traffic model you can copy, and a step-by-step method for replacing averages with your own Search Console numbers.

How much traffic does position 1 get?

Traffic from a first-place ranking is impressions multiplied by click-through rate. Google defines CTR in its Search Console Performance report documentation as "the click count divided by the impression count." So the honest answer to "how much traffic does position 1 get" is a rate, not a number of visitors: the share of people who saw your listing and clicked it.

Here is what the main published studies say about that rate for the top organic result.

The spread looks alarming, but each figure answers a slightly different question. Backlinko and SISTRIX describe the classic ten blue links era. First Page Sage splits its 2026 data by whether an AI answer appears. Ahrefs looks only at informational keywords, which naturally have lower CTRs than branded or shopping queries. Pick the benchmark that matches the type of query you are forecasting.

Google CTR by position in 2026

The First Page Sage 2026 report, published September 22, 2026, is the most recent large CTR curve available. It covers 3.67 billion Google impressions and 41.2 million clicks from March 1 to August 31, 2026, and it reports every position on page one with and without an AI answer.

Three patterns stand out:

• Position 1 still dominates. On searches without an AI answer, the top result earns more than twice the CTR of position 2 (22.6% vs 10.2%) and close to four times position 3 (5.8%).
• The curve is steep. By position 5 the CTR is 2.5%, and position 10 gets 0.5%. Moving from position 8 to position 5 helps, but moving from 3 to 1 is where most of the value sits.
• AI answers compress everything. With an AI answer present, position 1 falls to 3.6% and position 3 to 0.8%. The ratio between positions stays similar, but the absolute numbers shrink by roughly 80% or more.

First Page Sage says its blended position 1 figure fell from 39.8% in its 2025 report to 7.1% in 2026. Treat that drop with some caution: the 2025 edition did not split results by AI answer presence, and methodology changes between editions can move numbers on their own. The direction, though, matches every other recent study.

Older studies are still useful for the shape of the curve. Backlinko found that the top three results took 54.4% of all clicks in its dataset, and that the number one result was about 10 times more likely to be clicked than the result in position 10. For a deeper look at the gap between the top spots, see our breakdown of position 1 vs position 3.

How AI Overviews change position 1 traffic

AI Overviews are the biggest reason position 1 traffic is lower than it was three years ago. Several independent datasets now point the same way.

Ahrefs: 58% lower CTR for the top result

Ahrefs' February 2026 update compared 150,000 keywords that show an AI Overview with 150,000 informational keywords that do not. In December 2023, before AI Overviews rolled out, position 1 CTR was 7.3% for the first group and 7.6% for the second. By December 2025 it was 1.6% for AI Overview keywords and 3.9% for the rest. Ahrefs estimates the AI Overview keywords ended up about 58% below where they would have been without the feature.

Note what that also says: CTR fell sharply even on keywords without an AI Overview. Some of the decline comes from other changes on the results page and in how people search, not only from AI summaries.

Seer Interactive: organic CTR down 61% on AIO queries

Seer Interactive's September 2025 update tracked 3,119 informational queries across 42 client organizations. Organic CTR on queries with an AI Overview fell from 1.76% in June 2024 to 0.61% in September 2025, a decline Seer reports as 61%. These are averages across all positions, so they are lower than any single position 1 figure. Seer also found that brands cited inside the AI Overview earned 35% more organic clicks than brands that were not cited, though it notes this may reflect brand strength rather than the citation itself.

Pew Research: people click less when a summary appears

The Pew Research Center tracked the real browsing of 900 U.S. adults in March 2025. Users clicked a traditional result on 8% of visits to results pages with an AI summary, compared with 15% on pages without one. They clicked a link inside the summary on just 1% of visits, and ended their browsing session 26% of the time after an AI summary page, vs 16% without.

Google's own AI features documentation says clicks from results pages with AI Overviews are "higher quality," meaning visitors tend to spend more time on the site. That is Google's claim, without published data, but it is a reason to judge position 1 by revenue and engagement, not raw clicks alone. If AI Overviews are already eating into your top rankings, our Google AI Overviews optimization work focuses on getting your brand cited inside them.

Why position 1 CTR varies so much by query

A single average hides huge differences between keywords. Before you trust any benchmark, look at the actual results page for the queries you care about.

The results page layout

SISTRIX's mobile study, published in 2020 and still the most detailed public breakdown by layout, found that the same first-place ranking produced very different CTRs depending on what else Google showed. The figures are old and come from before AI Overviews, so use them for direction, not as current adjustment factors.

For e-commerce, the Shopping row matters most. Product and category keywords often show Shopping ads and free product listings above the first organic result, so a top organic ranking can sit well below the fold. That is one reason Merchant Center and product feed quality belong in the same plan as your rankings.

Branded vs nonbranded searches

Backlinko found that first-place CTR is significantly higher for branded searches, because those are mostly navigational: the searcher already wants you. If you mix branded and nonbranded queries in one report, strong branded clicks will make acquisition keywords look healthier than they are.

Device, intent and your snippet

Mobile screens show fewer results before scrolling, so features above the organic listings cost more there. Informational queries are the most likely to trigger AI Overviews, while transactional queries are more likely to trigger Shopping results. And your own title tag and description still decide whether people pick you over the result below. Our guide to improving SERP CTR covers that side in detail.

A worked example: traffic by ranking position

To turn a CTR curve into a forecast, multiply monthly impressions by the CTR for each position. The model below assumes a keyword that earns 5,000 impressions a month while you rank on page one, and uses First Page Sage's 2026 figures. It is an illustrative calculation, not a promise of traffic for any specific keyword.

Two lessons fall out of this model. First, on a query with no AI answer, moving from position 3 to position 1 adds about 840 clicks a month, nearly four times the traffic. Second, a position 1 ranking on a query with an AI answer (180 clicks) earns less than a position 3 ranking on a query without one (290 clicks). Which keyword you rank for can matter more than where you rank.

Add revenue to the model

Clicks only matter if they turn into orders. Continue the example: if the 1,130 clicks at position 1 convert at 2% with an $80 average order value, that is about 23 orders and roughly $1,800 a month. The 180 clicks on the AI answer version, at the same rates, produce about 4 orders and roughly $290. Run your own numbers in our free CTR calculator, which models clicks by position with optional conversion inputs.

How to estimate your own position 1 traffic

Published curves are a starting point. Your own data is better, because it already reflects your brand, your snippets and the layouts your customers actually see. Here is the process we use.

1. Export queries with impressions and position. In Search Console, open the Performance report, choose the last three months (or the same season last year), and export queries with clicks, impressions, CTR and average position.
2. Remove branded queries. Filter out your brand name and common misspellings. Analyze them separately, since they behave like navigation.
3. Split by device and country. Compare mobile with desktop and keep one market at a time. Mixing them blurs the curve.
4. Build your own CTR curve. Group queries by rounded average position (1, 2, 3 and so on) and divide total clicks by total impressions for each group. Do not average the individual CTR percentages, which overweights tiny queries.
5. Tag the layout. For your 20 to 50 most valuable queries, search them in a clean browser and note whether an AI Overview, Shopping results, ads or a video pack appears. Use the matching benchmark for each.
6. Forecast in ranges. For each target keyword, estimate clicks at a low, expected and high CTR using your own curve. Multiply by conversion rate and order value to rank opportunities by revenue, not volume.
7. Revisit every quarter. Layouts change. Re-check the results page and your curve whenever a priority query gains or loses an AI Overview.

Our free Search Console analyzer speeds up steps 1 through 4. Remember that average position in Search Console is "the average position of the topmost result from your site," per Google, so a page averaging 1.4 has not held first place for every impression.

Low CTR at position 1? Diagnose it

If a page ranks first but earns far less than the benchmark for its layout, work through the likely causes before rewriting anything.

Google also rewrites titles it considers a poor match, which can change your snippet without warning. Our guide on what counts as a good organic CTR gives benchmarks to compare against.

Is ranking number one still worth it?

Yes, for the right keywords. Even on the compressed 2026 curve, position 1 earns roughly twice the clicks of position 2 and four times position 3. What has changed is that the keyword choice matters as much as the position. A first place on an informational query wrapped in an AI Overview may send a trickle of visitors. A first place on a commercial query with a clean layout can still be one of your best acquisition channels.

For most Shopify brands, that means:

• Prioritize product, category and comparison keywords where shoppers still click through to buy.
• Treat informational content as a way to earn AI Overview citations and brand recall, not just clicks.
• Measure success in revenue and qualified sessions, since Google says AI Overview clicks tend to be more engaged.
• Track AI visibility alongside rankings, because a citation in an AI answer can be worth more than a lower organic slot on the same page.

If you are planning next year's targets, our guide to SEO traffic forecasting shows how to roll these estimates into a full plan.

Next steps for your store

Start with the queries you already rank for. Pull 90 days of Search Console data, strip out branded terms, build your own CTR curve, and tag which priority queries show an AI Overview or Shopping results. Then rank opportunities by forecast revenue, not search volume, and focus first on positions 2 to 5 on clean layouts.

If you want a second pair of eyes on which rankings are worth chasing, our SEO team builds these forecasts for e-commerce brands every week. You can get in touch here.